12-25-24, 09:07 AM
From HERE
I disagree with the numbers but not the conclusions of this post.
The best estimates of the zero feedbacks ECS are 1.1C (Curry, 2010), 1.2C (Lindzen 2011), and using Monckton’s irreducible equation and his paper’s inputs, more precisely 1.16C.
The best empirical estimate of cloud feedback (Dessler 2010) is ~0—redone and confirmed by McIntyre in 2011. Even the IPCC AR5 says the sum of all else except water vapor feedback (WVF) is about zero.
That leaves WVF, which via the Clausius-Clapeyron equation must be something positive. So the net feedbacks ECS must be something above 1.2C, not below. The best empirical estimates using EBM are about 1.65-1.7C. That is in almost in exact agreement with the estimate derived from Guy Callendar’s 1938 curve of 1.68C. That is also in very good agreement with the INM CM5 model from CMIP6 (the only one without a spurious tropical troposphere hotspot) that has ECS at 1.8C
No cause for alarm.
I disagree with the numbers but not the conclusions of this post.
The best estimates of the zero feedbacks ECS are 1.1C (Curry, 2010), 1.2C (Lindzen 2011), and using Monckton’s irreducible equation and his paper’s inputs, more precisely 1.16C.
The best empirical estimate of cloud feedback (Dessler 2010) is ~0—redone and confirmed by McIntyre in 2011. Even the IPCC AR5 says the sum of all else except water vapor feedback (WVF) is about zero.
That leaves WVF, which via the Clausius-Clapeyron equation must be something positive. So the net feedbacks ECS must be something above 1.2C, not below. The best empirical estimates using EBM are about 1.65-1.7C. That is in almost in exact agreement with the estimate derived from Guy Callendar’s 1938 curve of 1.68C. That is also in very good agreement with the INM CM5 model from CMIP6 (the only one without a spurious tropical troposphere hotspot) that has ECS at 1.8C
No cause for alarm.
“A theory that is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific.” – Karl Popper
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