Unstable Models: NOAA Substantially Cools Its December Mean Temperature Forecast For

[Sunsettommy]

No Tricks Zone

Unstable Models: NOAA Substantially Cools Its December Mean Temperature Forecast For Europe

By P Gosselin on 25. November 2023

Excerpt:

2°C downward correction

Overall the NOAA had been forecasting a very mild winter for this year. But that forecast has been cooled down a bit, at least the early part of the winter.

The NOAA’s latest GFS run has substantially cooled the temperature outlook for December. In its earlier projection, it saw December in Europe coming in 1 to 2°C warmer than the long-term mean:

LINK

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I am not surprised as my next post makes clear that the National Weather Service is at or near the bottom for weather forcasting success as they are frequently worse than other forecasting groups.

[Billy_Bob Patriot Master]

OH man...  You mean the MODEL failed again?  When are these people going to get their heads out of their computers and start using them.

NOAA missed the low temps by 10 degrees. We were -1 deg F this morning and our snow totals were twice what they predicted at over 2 feet of snow. They are missing a whole lot because of the failed modeling they use.

[Sunsettommy]

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Who Produces the Most Skillful Weather Forecasts?

November 17, 2023

Excerpt:

You have your choice of sources of weather forecasts on various smartphone apps and web pages.

Where can you get the best forecast? (other than this blog, of course )

One service, Forecastadviser.com, evaluates predictions from many weather outlets, including the National Weather Service to the Weather Channel (Weather.com).

Consider the scores for the last year (2022) for Seattle considering 5-day forecasts. The Weather Channel is number one, followed by Accuweatther. The National Weather Service is way down the list!.

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The reason why is explained as the National Weather Service use their own modeling set up which no one else uses..... LOL.

I believe it since I have long noticed the NWS are comically wrong at times borders of being criminally wrong.