11-11-23, 09:11 AM
I have never seen such a wide range of conflicting predications among climatologists. This week's NOAA discussion has no clear consensus, none! It appears that most of these folks have no idea how a moderate to strong El Niño will affect the flows aloft. The "last gasp El Niño" has burped up the last of the stored energy in the ocean. Most did not predict this and have no clue why it happened. Our climate is a buffered system so this is an expected response to all of the recent cooling globally. This will further cool the oceans as that is the effect of an El Niño. Once the heat is expended the land masses will cool rapidly.
This is why the start of a glacial phase is so dangerous. This causes massive snow falls globally and then you are hit with rapid cooling which compacts the snow and begins glaciation... Those who understand this are warning of record snow falls and potential cooling later in the year.
I've been watching weather patterns for over 50 years. The current pattern was seen in the 70's when the cooling scare was rampant. IN each of the previous falls into glaciation there was a heat spike (1-2 deg C) before the rapid cool off. We did not see this spike in the 70's but we see it today and it raises concerns to many who study paleo records. Remember that past behavior is the best predictor of future events.
Today they call this El Niño "acting weird" but they are clueless as to why it is acting out of what we have seen. This is a last gasp of energy from our oceans to keep us warm and with this energy expenditure our oceans have given up the remaining stored heat/energy. A return to the heavy snows of the 1930-40's is imminent and were not going to stop it.
The question is, are we about to enter the next 90,000 years of glaciation? Only time will tell that tale.
This is why the start of a glacial phase is so dangerous. This causes massive snow falls globally and then you are hit with rapid cooling which compacts the snow and begins glaciation... Those who understand this are warning of record snow falls and potential cooling later in the year.
I've been watching weather patterns for over 50 years. The current pattern was seen in the 70's when the cooling scare was rampant. IN each of the previous falls into glaciation there was a heat spike (1-2 deg C) before the rapid cool off. We did not see this spike in the 70's but we see it today and it raises concerns to many who study paleo records. Remember that past behavior is the best predictor of future events.
Today they call this El Niño "acting weird" but they are clueless as to why it is acting out of what we have seen. This is a last gasp of energy from our oceans to keep us warm and with this energy expenditure our oceans have given up the remaining stored heat/energy. A return to the heavy snows of the 1930-40's is imminent and were not going to stop it.
The question is, are we about to enter the next 90,000 years of glaciation? Only time will tell that tale.
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
*Benjamin Franklin, Historical Review of Pennsylvania, 1759
*Benjamin Franklin, Historical Review of Pennsylvania, 1759