08-23-23, 12:34 PM
From HERE
Quote:A follow up concerning ‘outlier’ INM CM5. Not only no tropical troposphere hotspot, but an ECS ~1.8, close to EBM ECS ~1.65-1.7.
The underlying reason is fascinating. INM carefully parameterized their ocean rainfall to ARGO observations (ARGO near surface salinity measures ‘ocean fresh water storage’ so indirectly ocean rainfall). So their model has about about twice the ocean rainfall as the rest of CMIP6, so about half the water vapor feedback (WVF) of the rest of CMIP6.
And this INM WVF fact can be used with Linden’s 2011 British Parliament paper Bode feedback curve to derive ECS ~1.8 differently. Lindzen’s no feedback ECS is Bode 0 at 1.2C. AR4 said WVF doubles no feedback, so +2.4C so Bode 0.5. IPCC says everything else except clouds nets to about 0, so clouds contribute +0.6C or Bode 0.15 for a total IPCC ECS 3 so Bode 0.65.
Dessler showed cloud feedback is about zero in 2010. INM figured observed WVF is about half of other models. So 0.65-0.15-0.5/2= Bode ~0.25. Plugged into Lindzen’s Bode curve produces ECS 1.8. Neat triangulation.
Also explains why the rest of CMIP6 produce a tropical troposphere hotspot and otherwise run hot. Too much WVF, unrealistic low ocean rainfall not parameterized using ARGO observations.
“A theory that is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific.” – Karl Popper
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