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+--- Thread: LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperat (/showthread.php?tid=2013)
LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperat - Sunsettommy - 08-17-23
MDPI
LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record
Pat Frank
Received: 20 May 2023 / Revised: 17 June 2023 / Accepted: 21 June 2023 / Published: 27 June 2023
Excerpt:
Abstract
The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900–1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946–1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981–2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005–2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900–1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.
LINK
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A nice exposed of not having error bars on temperature charts.
RE: LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperat - Billy_Bob - 08-17-23
(08-17-23, 07:05 PM)Sunsettommy Wrote: MDPI
LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record
Pat Frank
Received: 20 May 2023 / Revised: 17 June 2023 / Accepted: 21 June 2023 / Published: 27 June 2023
Excerpt:
Abstract
The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900–1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946–1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981–2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005–2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900–1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.
LINK
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A nice exposed of not having error bars on temperature charts.
I hate to say it, but some of us knew the whole record was so flawed, to be unusable, in its current format due to uncertainty of the equipment used. All of the adjustments, which were arbitrary, make the record far worse than it was from the errors in equipment.
Just goes to prove we still don't have clue about our climate or how it functions. It also shows us why climate modeling fails, without exception.